Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, June 11th

Friday’s bond market opened in negative territory, erasing part of yesterday’s late rally. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 33 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (1.45%), but strength late yesterday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Thursday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement before closing yesterday, you may see a small increase in this morning’s pricing, depending on the size the late revision.

5/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.45%

33


Dow


34,499

30


NASDAQ


14,050

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Positive


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction did not draw as strong of a demand as Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale. It wasn’t bad either though. The benchmarks showed an average level of interest compared to other recent sales. We saw bonds improve throughout the afternoon yesterday, but it was not the auction that caused the rally. They had already started to move higher before the 1:00 PM release of the auction results. However, the fact we did not see a weak demand for the securities may have contributed somewhat to the afternoon rally that led to the intraday improvement in rates.

Medium


Negative


University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment was today’s only relevant economic release. It came in at 86.4, higher than forecasts of 84 and up from May’s 82.9. The higher number indicates surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than they did last month. That is relevant because rising confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending that makes up 70% of the U.S. economy. Accordingly, a decline would have been favorable news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

High


Unknown


Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Next week brings us plenty more in terms of economic releases and other events than we saw this week that are expected to influence mortgage rates. Oddly enough, most of them are scheduled over only two days. Monday has nothing of importance set, but Tuesday and Wednesday are packed with activities. They include the highly important Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales reports that measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and track consumer spending, respectively. There is also a Treasury auction set for Tuesday. They will be followed by Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting adjournment, revised Fed economic projections and press conference. Throw in a few other moderately important economic reports and we have the making of a very active few days for mortgage rates. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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